Journal of Interance Sapience Technology

Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026): Volume 1, Issue 1, Year 2026
Articles

Probabilistic Carbonation Modelling for Service Life Design of Reinforced Concrete

PDF
  • Reshma Raj P.V,
  • Ruban Daniel V,
  • Jerushan J,
  • Hemalatha G
Reshma Raj P.V PET Engineering College, Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India
Ruban Daniel V PET Engineering College, Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India
Jerushan J Adiya Engineering College, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
Hemalatha G Department of Civil Engineering, Karunya Institute of Technology and Sciences, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India

Published 2026-02-14

Keywords

  • Carbonation,
  • Reinforced Concrete,
  • Climate Change,
  • Service Life Prediction,
  • Corrosion,
  • RCP Scenarios,
  • Probabilistic Reliability,
  • Durability Design
    • ...More
    Less

Copyright (c) 2026 Reshma Raj P.V, Ruban Daniel V, Jerushan J, Hemalatha G (Author)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Climate change accelerates carbonation in reinforced concrete infrastructure by increasing the atmospheric CO₂ concentration, temperature, and humidity fluctuations, thereby reducing service life and heightening corrosion-related maintenance demands. This study develops an integrated service-life assessment framework that integrates climate projection data with carbonation modelling and probabilistic reliability evaluation. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are mapped to carbonation coefficients for estimating carbonation depth, corrosion initiation/propagation, and degradation in structural performance. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to incorporate uncertainty in concrete properties, cover depth, environmental exposure, and model variability. The results point out a 25-45% reduction in service life in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 for typical urban RC buildings designed to a 75-year life. Cover depth and water-cement ratio were found to be the dominant sensitivity factors. Climate-responsive durability design, including increased cover, low-carbon blended cement, hydrophobic coatings, and performance-based specifications, is recommended to ensure resilience and sustainability of future RC infrastructures. The study draws attention to the pressing need for climate projections to be integrated into structural codes, asset management, and life-cycle costing frameworks.
PDF

References

  1. Papadakis, V.G., Vayenas, C.G., Fardis, M.N. (1991). Fundamental modeling and experimental investigation of concrete carbonation. Materials Journal,88(4), 363-373.
  2. IPCC. (2021). Sixth Assessment Report—Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  3. Talukdar, S., Banthia, N., Grace, J. (2012). Carbonation in concrete infrastructure in the context of global climate change – Part 1: Experimental results and model development. Cement and Concrete Composites, 34(8), 931–935. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cemconcomp.2012.04.011
  4. Savija, B., Luković, M. (2016). Carbonation of cement paste: Understanding, challenges, and opportunities. Construction and Building Materials, 117, 285–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2016.04.138
  5. Eurocode 2. (2023). Design of Concrete Structures—EN 1992. European Committee for Standardization.
  6. Fédération Internationale du Béton (fib). (2010). Model Code for Concrete Structures 2010.
  7. Tuutti, K. (1982). Corrosion of Steel in Concrete. Swedish Cement and Concrete Institute. Stockholm.
  8. Thomas, M. D. A. (2013). Durability of Concrete Structures. CRC Press.
  9. DuraCrete. (2000). Probabilistic Performance-Based Durability Design of Concrete Structures. EU BRITE-EURAM Project BE95-1347.
  10. Stewart, M.G., Wang, X. (2012). Risk assessment of climate change impacts on concrete infrastructure. Structural Safety, 35, 29–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2011.10.002
  11. Wang, X., Zhang, W., & Stewart, M. G. (2020). Climate change impact on carbonation-induced corrosion in reinforced concrete infrastructure. Engineering Structures, 215, 110704.